Age 32!

When I entered into the ripe age of thirty a couple of years back I remember how much more difficult sports were starting to seem as I played softball, basketball and indoor soccer. Especially at Age 32! Obviously the older you reach in age the more difficult sports are to play. The best players in the game ever start to breakdown. Michael Jordan, Randy Moss, Larry Bird and the list goes on and on. Your body can’t keep up like when you were in your twenties. Everybody wishes they could be Brett Favre or Cal Ripken and play forever. This just doesn’t happen in the real world of sports.

Unfortunately for a number of wide receivers in the National Football League this is the same feeling when looking at their statistics after hitting, you guessed it, Age 32!

Wide receiver drafting can make or break you in your fantasy league. With the west coast offense passing games and teams airing it out due to always injured running backs, wide receivers are more important than ever. Making sure you draft the correct one can make the difference of whether or not you win your league.

Now there are always exceptions to the Age 32! rule.

Marvin Harrison – Colts – 2004 – Age 32 – 86 Receptions / 1,113 Yards / 15 Touchdowns
Reggie Wayne – Colts – 2010 – Age 32 – 111 Receptions / 1,355 Yards / 6 Touchdowns
Donald Driver- Packers – 2006 – Age 32 – 92 Receptions / 1,295 Yards / 8 Touchdowns

These are the exceptions to the Age 32! rule and I am sure there are a couple more. Unless you have Peyton Manning or Brett Favre throwing you the ball you could be an exception to the rule. Most receivers are not in this category or have one of the best quarterbacks ever throwing them the ball when they are hitting their mid thirties or late thirties. Donald Driver has been fortunate to have Brett Favre in his early thirties and Aaron Rodgers in his mid to late thirties. Hines Ward could also be an exception to the rule for all you Steeler fans out there. Last time I checked Ben Roethlisberger is a pretty good quarterback as well.

Now let’s look at the majority of the receivers and how this interesting Age 32! has hit them in their playing career.

I am sure Randy Moss is fresh on everyone’s mind after his wonderful season last year. ADP, “Average Draft Position” for Randy Moss in most listings for PPR, “Point Per Reception” leagues was 8. Yes, Randy Moss was listed in most mock drafts last year at number 8. Can you imagine if you would have stayed away from Moss since he was 32 years old how different your league might have been. You could have drafted Reggie Wayne who was 31 at draft time, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White or Greg Jennings. All receivers under the age of 32 with three of them in their mid to late twenties. Yikes!!!!! Maybe that exception to the rule thing doesn’t apply here since Moss had Brady and Favre throwing him footballs for most of last year. We will get back to Randy’s statistics in a minute.

Randy Moss obviously frustrated on the sidelines. Photo by Icon SMI.

Side note: I didn’t pay attention to this rule and it cost me one of my leagues. Drafted Randy Moss early and ended up not in the championship bracket for the first time ever for this league.

Anyone a Deion Branch fan out there? Ready for Tom Brady to throw multiple footballs his way and get great statistics. I am sure all you Pats fans have that long bomb still carved in your brain against the Bears last year in that New England blowout win. Don’t bet on it this year eventhough most of your competition is betting on this. After last season’s comeback year Deion Branch has and ADP in PPR leagues of 91. Your competition believes Deion Branch is going to be in the top forty wide receivers in the league statistically. In a twelve man league that equates to Deion Branch being a guaranteed wide receiver three starting position. Did I mention Deion Branch turned Age 32! this year. Would you take Deion Branch in front of Steve Breaston? “ADP 49, Age 27″ Would you take Deion Branch in front of Mike Williams from Seattle? “ADP 45, Age 27″ Stick with my plan and take the younger guys. Guaranteed lock of a move to pass on Branch and grab one of these other guys in the next round.

Need more examples to prove my point. No problem! I could write about this all day with the stats to back this up.

Let’s see how old Randy Moss did last year at the great Age 32!

Randy Moss / 2010 / Age 32! / 28 Receptions / 393 Yards / 5 Touchdowns
Anquan Boldin /2010 / Age 30 / 64 Receptions / 837 Yards / 7 Touchdowns / ADP above A.Collie and P. Garcon for this year
Chad Ochocinco / 2010 / Age 32! / 67 Receptions / 831 Yards / 4 Touchdowns
Michael Irvin / 1999 / Age 32! – 33 / 10 Receptions / 167 Yards / 3 Touchdowns / Injuries during the season as well

Irvin also went from 9 touchdowns to 1 touchdown when he turned Age 32! in 1998!

So which players are going to break this year now that they are getting up their in age. Stay far far away from Santana Moss. Moss turns Age 32! this year. That is the first reason to stay away from him. He now has Rex Grossman throwing him the football which is very scary and the second reason. The third reason would be the NFC East just got a little better safety and corner wise if you didn’t hear. Well except for the Dallas Cowboys but that is only two games this season. Santana Moss has an ADP of 93 this season. He is ahead of the two young receivers I mentioned earlier with Breaston and Williams. He is also ahead of some other position players like Reggie Bush, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford and Brent Celek.

Pass on Santana Moss. Pass on Age 32!

I am a believer in betting on some younger guys who might breakout.

Austin Collie had an ADP last year of 135. Mike Williams had an ADP last year of 161. Who would have thought they would have doubled the production of Randy Moss at Age 32!

So when you are thinking about Chad Ochocinco instead of Pierre Garcon at the end of round six this year think Age 32! Or when you are considering pulling the trigger on Santana Moss and Deion Branch opposed to going running back with Reggie Bush at the end of round eight or beginning of round nine think Age 32! Or when you are really going to win your league and grab Anquan Boldin as a steal before Vernon Davis in round five think about my little article and Age 32!

Beware of Age 32!

Austin Sears
AKS