Fantasy Football Week 8 Match-Ups

Welcome to our look at the NFL’s Week 8 Match-ups. This is the week where the play-off races really start to heat up. From a Fantasy perspective, that means we should see the best many teams have to offer in key games and divisional battles with big play-off implications. We should also get to see what philosophies a few teams plan to follow down the stretch. By this mid-point, teams have experimented with their offense and now have a pretty good idea of what they have to work with. I would expect the next two weeks to be a big indicator of what’s to come for the rest of the season. Throw in a few new faces here and there with injuries and this week should be much more exciting than last week’s games. So let’s get to the match-up numbers for Week 8.     

A reminder of how our Index numbers are figured and what they mean to you:

After completion of the previous week’s games I will pull the offensive and defensive passing and rushing yardage rankings for each team. I will then post those numbers against each other for the upcoming match-ups. Each team will be ranked from 1 to 32 strictly in terms of the amount of yardage gained or allowed in that category. Since we don’t know your scoring system, yardage is the purest way to assess how teams are stacking up in both the rushing and passing game. We will award the #1 rushing offense with 32 points, the #2 rushing offense with 31 and continue in descending order to the bottom of the league totals. We will award the #1 rushing defense with 32 points of deduction value, the #2 rushing defense with 31 deduction points, etc. Then we will bump numbers from the weekly match-ups to give us an Index number for each offensive unit which will tell you how good or poor the match up is for your fantasy players. High positive Index numbers will indicate great match-ups while a negative number will be a red flag. The closer the Index number is to zero, the more you should look for other factors such as home field, weather and injuries to predict the success of those players. While I will make no attempt to give you start ‘em or sit ’em advice, I will follow up the weekly chart with match up notes that will include additional info and point out inconsistencies that might make numbers misleading or interesting trends that supplement the data.

Remember one very important thing about fantasy football, everyone has an opinion and sometimes reading several opinions only confuses you more when you are trying to make tough line-up decisions. If you find yourself in that situation, always revert to the numbers to see if a statistical edge is there. Obviously the numbers won’t always lead you to the correct decision, but if you play the numbers consistently you will make the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

May the Fantasy Gods Bless those owners who work the hardest.

WEEK 8 RUSHING MATCH-UPS

 WEEK 8 PASSING MATCH-UPS

 GAME NOTES:

* Note All Times EST

Sun, Oct 30

NO @ STL  1:00 PM  Edward Jones Dome

This one is a huge mismatch on paper folks. The Saints, fresh off their explosion against the Colts, should be able to pass with an index advantage of 11 and have their way in the running game with a huge index number of 23. The only small concern here is a heel injury to Mark Ingram. The Rams figure to struggle in both offensive areas with -7 (passing) and -11 (rushing) index numbers this week.

JAC @ HOU  1:00 PM  Reliant Stadium

This is a big game for both teams as Houston looks to establish themselves as the class of the AFC South and the Jags look to prove they are a play-off contender. It will have to be the running game for Jacksonville with a fairly neutral running index of -3 compared to a bad match-up in the passing game of -24. Houston may also lean on the run with an index of 5 compared to a pass index of -4. There is a chance that Andre Johnson will play this week which would be a big boost to the Texan aerial attack.

MIA @ NYG  1:00 PM  MetLife Stadium

After blowing a 15 point lead late last week to the Broncos, the Phins are still looking for victory number 1. The Giants are looking to extend their lead in the NFC East. The numbers certainly favor the Giants passing at index 15 over their rush index of -10. Miami’s best shot appears to be running (9) over throwing (-3), but look for the G-Men to stack the box to stop the run this week.

ARI @ BAL  1:00 PM  M&T Bank Stadium

This figures to be another long week for the Cards as they travel to Baltimore to face a presumably angry Ravens squad coming off a poor performance Monday night. Arizona faces index deficits of -9 passing and -21 rushing against Ray Lewis and company. The Ravens may be a bit more pass heavy this week with an index of 11 and a rush disadvantage of -5.

IND @ TEN  1:00 PM  LP Field

The Titans look for a win to go to 4-3 in the South against the winless and hapless Colts. The Horseshoes face another tough D this week and should have trouble passing at an index of -12. They may, however, be able to run a little with a neutral rush match-up of -1. The Titans also face a run index of -1, but they should have an advantage in the air with a good index of 11.  

MIN @ CAR  1:00 PM  Bank of America Stadium

The scoreboard operator needs to be ready for this match-up. The -4 rushing index for Carolina and -17 passing index for Minnesota likely won’t slow these teams down, because the Panthers have a huge passing advantage of 24 and the Vikes sport a great rushing advantage of 26. Vegas says the over/under is 47.5. That might be a little low.

DET @ DEN  4:05 PM  Sports Authority Field at Mile High

The Tim Tebow saga returns to Mile High for his first home start of the year. How can a player be so horrible and so great at the same time? I’d say no chance this week with Tebow facing a pass index of -17, but he may be able to exploit a rushing index of 13. The Lions are trying to right the ship after consecutive losses. They should be able to throw with an index of 8 but may struggle in the running game at -9.

WAS @ BUF  4:05 PM  Rogers Centre

At first glance, this looks like a game the Bills should win, but the numbers suggest it won’t be easy. The Skins have advantages of 10 rushing and 14 passing against a bad Bills’ defense that ranks 30^th against the run and pass thus far. However they will be without Santana Moss and Tim Hightower. The Bills face a -4 passing index, but have a large rush index of 13.

CIN @ SEA  4:15 PM  CenturyLink Field

The impressive Bengals look to make up ground against the Steelers who face New England this week. They have a dead neutral passing match-up against Seattle and a tough rush match-up of -10. The Hawks face even greater challenges of -23 passing and -26 rushing. Look for this one to be a low scoring game with limited fantasy numbers.

NE @ PIT  4:15 PM  Heinz Field

The marquee match-up of the week should be a great one. The rushing match-ups in this game are fairly neutral for both teams. The difference should be in the passing game. The Steelers have a pass index of 23. The Pats, despite having the number one passing offense in the league have a neutral match-up because the Steelers have the number one pass defense in the league. If Pittsburgh can limit big plays from Brady, they will have the statistical edge in this big game.

CLE @ SF  4:15 PM  Candlestick Park

The Forty-Niners put their 5-1 record on the line against the 3-3 Browns in the Bay. Look for San Fran to get the better of this battle because they should be able to run with an index of 13 even though they face the week’s worst pass index of -29. The Browns also face a week’s worst match-up with a -27 run index against the Niners stingy run D. The Browns pass index is a draw at 0.

DAL @ PHI  8:20 PM  Lincoln Financial Field

Games don’t get much bigger than the Sunday Night brawl in Philly. The winner is in the hunt, while the loser will face a long tough road to make the play-offs. The Eagles send their surprisingly top rated running game against Dallas’ top rated run Defense for a neutral rush index. Michael Vick will have an advantage of 6 in the passing game. The Cowboys also have a pass index of 6 against a tough Philly secondary, but should also be able to run the ball with an index of 11. Philly probably needs this game more, but the Cowboys are hard to predict.

Mon, Oct 31 Time (ET)

SD @ KC  8:30 PM  Arrowhead Stadium

The suddenly relevant Chiefs are looking to tie the Chargers and Raiders for first in this Monday Night divisional showdown. The numbers say the Bolts will be good offensively with a rush index of 12 and a pass index of 10. The Chiefs may not be able to throw with a horrible index number of -27, but should be able to run with the Arrowhead crowd behind them and a rush index of 14. The Chargers will either be the team to beat in the West after this game or find themselves in a familiar position of fighting for their play-off lives after a good start.

 Good luck and don’t forget your Byes: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers