Week 9 Match-Ups

We are at the midpoint of the 2011 season and the order of the day is inconsistency, especially in the NFC. From week to week, teams are performing erratically. For example the New Orleans Saints score over 60 on Monday night and come back and loose to a cellar dweller in the Rams on Sunday. This is also making it difficult to predict how your fantasy players will perform from week to week. This is also the time of year when the word questionable begins to haunt fantasy players. So as we always say in this match-ups column, in order to take advantage of the numbers you must be committed to them. The numbers may cause you to lay an egg like the Saints or Cowboys did in week 8, but let’s be honest, you are starting Brees and Romo anyway, so the numbers didn’t beat you last week. Blame the Saints and Cowboys defenses for falling behind and making their respective teams one dimensional. In any event, there are some big battles in the League this week, so let’s get out our calculators and break down how teams figure to stack up statistically.    

A reminder of how our Index numbers are figured and what they mean to you:

After completion of the previous week’s games I will pull the offensive and defensive passing and rushing yardage rankings for each team. I will then post those numbers against each other for the upcoming match-ups. Each team will be ranked from 1 to 32 strictly in terms of the amount of yardage gained or allowed in that category. Since we don’t know your scoring system, yardage is the purest way to assess how teams are stacking up in both the rushing and passing game. We will award the #1 rushing offense with 32 points, the #2 rushing offense with 31 and continue in descending order to the bottom of the league totals. We will award the #1 rushing defense with 32 points of deduction value, the #2 rushing defense with 31 deduction points, etc. Then we will bump numbers from the weekly match-ups to give us an Index number for each offensive unit which will tell you how good or poor the match up is for your fantasy players. High positive Index numbers will indicate great match-ups while a negative number will be a red flag. The closer the Index number is to zero, the more you should look for other factors such as home field, weather and injuries to predict the success of those players. While I will make no attempt to give you start ‘em or sit ’em advice, I will follow up the weekly chart with match up notes that will include additional info and point out inconsistencies that might make numbers misleading or interesting trends that supplement the data.

Remember one very important thing about fantasy football, everyone has an opinion and sometimes reading several opinions only confuses you more when you are trying to make tough line-up decisions. If you find yourself in that situation, always revert to the numbers to see if a statistical edge is there. Obviously the numbers won’t always lead you to the correct decision, but if you play the numbers consistently you will make the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

May the Fantasy Gods Bless those owners who work the hardest.

WEEK 9 RUSHING MATCH-UPS

 WEEK 9 PASSING MATCH-UPS

 GAME NOTES:

* Note All Times EST

Sun, Nov 06

NYJ @ BUF  1:00 PM  Ralph Wilson Stadium

The Jets have started to get things going recently, but face a tough divisional test this week in Buffalo. The Jets have a slight index edge of 2 in the passing game this week and their #7 Pass defense will make things tough on the Bills (index -6). The Bills will have the advantage in the Running game with a strong index of 20 to the Jets -8. 

CLE @ HOU  1:00 PM  Reliant Stadium

The Browns rushing attack has been without Peyton Hillis most of the year and will also be without Montario Hardesty this week against a rush index of -23. They also face a tough passing test this week with a -15 index number facing Colt McCoy. The Texans hope to welcome back Andre Johnson to help against a -9 pass index and they should be good to go on the ground with this week’s best rush index 22.

MIA @ KC  1:00 PM  Arrowhead Stadium

The steadily improving Chiefs hope the bounces and botched snaps keep going their way as they battle the winless Dolphins this week. The home fans will help the Chiefs with fairly neutral stat index numbers of 4 rushing and -1 passing. The Fish had some success early against the Giants last week and hope to find their first win with a big rush index advantage of 10 and a manageable pass index of -5.

SEA @ DAL  1:00 PM  Cowboys Stadium

The Cowboys have played well in rebound games this year and find themselves trying to rebound from a thrashing by the Eagles last week. They have a passing index of 11 and a rush index of -4. Demarco Murray was effective last week but got only 8 carries as the Boys fell behind. The Hawks offense continues to struggle and face tough index numbers this week. -7 passing will be difficult and -27 rushing will be even worse.

SF @ WAS  1:00 PM  FedExField

The dominant 49er defense travels across the country to the nation’s capitol to battle a Skins team that was shut out in Toronto last week. The Redskins may be able to pass a little (index 5) but likely won’t be able to run at all (index -25). The Niners O hasn’t been great, but good enough to win. This week they face the worst pass index of the week at -19, but they have a great opportunity to run Frank Gore with a solid rush index of 15.

TB @ NO  1:00 PM  Mercedes-Benz Superdome

The Saints are trying to come back from an embarrassing loss last week as well as avenge an early loss to the Bucs. The Dome may be just what the doctor ordered this week. They have a big rush index of 12 and huge pass index of 25 in what looks to be a great match-up for them this week. The Bucs offense faces virtually even match-ups this week with the Saints defense. They have indexes of -1 passing and 1 rushing.

ATL @ IND  1:00 PM  Lucas Oil Stadium

The Colts may be the leader in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes and still are winless. This week they host another dome team in the Falcons who seem to be moving in the right direction after early struggles. The Colts have a statistical hill to climb, as usual, with indexes of -4 passing and -15 rushing. Michael Turner will look to exploit a rush advantage of 14 for the Falcons while Matt Ryan will have a passing advantage of 4 with which to work.

DEN @ OAK  4:05 PM  O.co Coliseum

All eyes will be on new starting quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Tim Tebow this week in the Black Hole. The Raiders, likely playing without leading gainer Darren McFadden, will try to take advantage of a 15 rush index while Carson Palmer will try to overcome a -4 passing index. The Broncos will have an opening in the running game at index 8 while the passing game faces a deficit of 5.

CIN @ TEN  4:05 PM  LP Field

The Bengals should have more success rushing than passing this week with a run index of 6 versus a pass index of -4. The Titans, who typically play well at home, hope to be able to pass with an index of -5, because they have yet to get the running game going at all. This week they face the week’s worst run index of -30. This one should come down to how many points rookie Andy Dalton can help the Tigers produce in what figures to be a low scoring game.

NYG @ NE  4:15 PM  Gillette Stadium

Eli Manning has quietly put some of the best passing numbers in the NFL and has a great match-up this week with the Pats’ horrible pass defense (NYG pass index is league best 28). The running game has been sputtering as of late for the G-Men and this week’s index will be a paltry -21. On the other side Tom Brady will lead the #2 passing attack in the league with an index of 11 for the week while his running game could also have success at index 10. The Patriots haven’t lost a regular season home game since 2008.

GB @ SD  4:15 PM  Qualcomm Stadium

The Cheeseheads, widely regarded as the league’s best team, roll in to sunny San Diego to battle a Chargers team in disarray. This one has the makings of an upset with the Green Bay holding a pass advantage of only 1 and a rush disadvantage of -7. The Lightning Bolts have a rush index of -3 but may have a huge day in the passing game at index 25. Their reputations are also on the line this week as they test themselves against the defending champs.

STL @ ARI  4:15 PM  University of Phoenix Stadium

Arizona will likely be without starter Kevin Kolb this week as a once promising season has all but disappeared. The Birds face a pass index of -4 but may be able to run a little with an advantage of 7. The Rams, fresh off a big win against the Saints face a rush index of -4 but hope Sam Bradford and Brandon Lloyd continue to build a relationship with a pass index of 4 this week.

BAL @ PIT  8:20 PM  Heinz Field

This rematch has been brewing since week 1. The Ravens almost stumbled against the Cards last week looking ahead to this tough game. The Steelers are playing very well and looking forward to this one. The statistical edge in the passing game goes to the Steelers at index -4 over the Ravens pass index of -14. The rushing match-up is dead even with both teams registering a rush index of -11 against tough defenses. Should be a low scoring slugfest as usual is between these two rivals.

Mon, Nov 07

CHI @ PHI  8:30 PM  Lincoln Financial Field

On paper, the home team figures to win this big. The Eagles enjoy index advantages of 11 rushing and a whopping 19 in the passing game while the Bears face a -7 passing index and a rush index of only 4. However the Bears need this game and may be able to run against the Eagles run D. Vick has been great in primetime games recently. At least we have some decent teams in the Monday Night event!

Best of luck to you and don’t forget your Byes! Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings