Week 11 Match-Ups

Chances are your fantasy line-up needs tweaks for week 11. Especially when you consider the number of fantasy players that have been recently injured and the four teams that are on Byes this week, your line-up may be drastically different than a week ago. So how will your subs and NFL subs forced into action this week fair? That depends, to some extent, on what defenses they are matched up against. Our match-up index numbers should give you a great starting point for solving those missing persons issues in your line-up this week.

 A reminder of how our Index numbers are figured and what they mean to you:

After completion of the previous week’s games I will pull the offensive and defensive passing and rushing yardage rankings for each team. I will then post those numbers against each other for the upcoming match-ups. Each team will be ranked from 1 to 32 strictly in terms of the amount of yardage gained or allowed in that category. Since we don’t know your scoring system, yardage is the purest way to assess how teams are stacking up in both the rushing and passing game. We will award the #1 rushing offense with 32 points, the #2 rushing offense with 31 and continue in descending order to the bottom of the league totals. We will award the #1 rushing defense with 32 points of deduction value, the #2 rushing defense with 31 deduction points, etc. Then we will bump numbers from the weekly match-ups to give us an Index number for each offensive unit which will tell you how good or poor the match up is for your fantasy players. High positive Index numbers will indicate great match-ups while a negative number will be a red flag. The closer the Index number is to zero, the more you should look for other factors such as home field, weather and injuries to predict the success of those players. While I will make no attempt to give you start ‘em or sit ’em advice, I will follow up the weekly chart with match up notes that will include additional info and point out inconsistencies that might make numbers misleading or interesting trends that supplement the data.

Remember one very important thing about fantasy football, everyone has an opinion and sometimes reading several opinions only confuses you more when you are trying to make tough line-up decisions. If you find yourself in that situation, always revert to the numbers to see if a statistical edge is there. Obviously the numbers won’t always lead you to the correct decision, but if you play the numbers consistently you will make the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

May the Fantasy Gods Bless those owners who work the hardest.

WEEK 11 RUSHING MATCH-UPS

WEEK 11 PASSING MATCH-UPS

GAME NOTES:

* Note All Times EST

Thu, Nov 17

NYJ @ DEN  8:20 PM  Sports Authority Field at Mile High

This would figure to be Tim Tebow’s toughest challenge to date, but that may not be entirely accurate. While the Jets pass defense will likely minimize the Broncos pass game with an index of -22, the Broncos haven’t won 3 out of their last 4 by throwing anyway. The Broncos sport a rushing index of 13 and a fighting chance in this one. The Jets struggling offense faces index numbers of -2 passing and -8 rushing in the mile high city Thursday night.

Sun, Nov 20

CAR @ DET  1:00 PM  Ford Field

This game is pretty evenly matched statistically as you will see. The #5 passing offense of Carolina should be neutralized by the #4 Detroit pass defense. Detroit’s #10 passing game has an index edge of 4 over the #14 Carolina passing D. Detroit’s bad #27 rushing attack has found an equal in Carolina’s #28 rushing defense. The one index number of note in this game is that Carolina will have a rushing index of 19 which is good for the third best rush index of the week. 

TB @ GB  1:00 PM  Lambeau Field

The Pack put their perfect record on the line against former division rival Tampa in a battle of the Bays. Rodgers and company should have their way with the best passing index of the week at 25. Green Bay will also have a rush index advantage of 8. The Bucs will face a difficult rush index of -17, but have a chance to pile up passing stats playing from behind and having a pass index of 19.

DAL @ WAS  1:00 PM  FedExField

Washington may be the second worse team in the NFL at this point, fresh off a loss to the Dolphins. This week figures to be challenging with the rival Cowboys having won two in row and bringing the #7 passing attack with an index of 2 to FedEx field along with a running game energized by the emerging Demarco Murray and a rush index of 9. The Skins will face index numbers of -3 passing and -20 rushing in the second meeting between the Cowboys and Indians.

CIN @ BAL  1:00 PM  M&T Bank Stadium

Baltimore got caught in the sandwich trap of two big division games in Seattle last week. They aren’t likely to repeat last week’s lackluster effort against the Bengals. The Ravens will have the passing index advantage with a -5 compared to Cincy’s pass index of -15. The Tigers will have a slight advantage in rushing index numbers with a -17 to Baltimore’s -20. All these negative index numbers suggest a physical battle with very little scoring may be in the cards.

OAK @ MIN  1:00 PM  Mall of America Field

Minnesota looks to bounce back from a Monday night smackdown by the Pack. Rookie QB Christian Ponder will battle a passing index of -7 but get help from Adrian Peterson and a week’s best rush index of 20. The Raiders continue to improve as Carson Palmer gets better in their passing offense which has an index of 7 against the Vikes . It looks as though Michael Bush may continue to carry the rushing load for an injured Darren McFadden with a rush index of 2 this week.

BUF @ MIA  1:00 PM  Sun Life Stadium

The surging Dolphins hope to keep it going against a Buffalo team that desperately needs to get back on the winning track this week. The Dolphins are better than their record and have advantages of 2 passing and 8 rushing against the Bills. Buffalo also has nice match-up index numbers this week at 12 passing and 4 rushing. This should be a good gauge of how good the Bills can be down the stretch.

JAC @ CLE  1:00 PM  Cleveland Browns Stadium

The key to this game will definitely be whether or not Cleveland can stop the run. The Jags have a great rush index of 19, but face a pass index of -31 which is mathematically the worst index number possible. The Browns face extremely tough index numbers as well with a -16 rushing and -15 passing. The only fantasy start in this game would be MJD or the maybe the Jacksonville Defense.

SEA @ STL  4:05 PM  Edward Jones Dome

This game figured to have play-off implications at the beginning of the season as the Seahawks won the NFC West last year and the Rams appeared ready to step forward and challenge for the division. The Niners had other plans in running off with the division race that is close to over in week 11. Seattle has index numbers of 4 rushing and -11 passing in this contest while the Rams face -4 rushing and -7 passing indexes in this match-up.

ARI @ SF  4:05 PM  Candlestick Park

Are the Forty-Niners the second best team in the NFC? In the NFL? I don’t know, but they have the inside track to a play-off bye and second round home game at this point. The Cards are trying to figure out who they will be next year. Alex Smith will have a pass match-up index of -7, but Frank Gore should exploit a rush number of 14. The Cards will likely have to throw (index 7) and forget the run (index -25) against this stout Niner D.

TEN @ ATL  4:15 PM  Georgia Dome

The Falcons are trying to recover from a big overtime loss to the Saints that featured a controversial fourth down call by Mike Smith. They have a rushing advantage of 10 this week but a neutral passing match-up at -3. The Titans have the worst run index of the week at -29, but could fair well throwing with a pass index of 9. This should be one of the better games of the week between two teams battling to be in the play-off picture.

SD @ CHI  4:15 PM  Soldier Field

Talk about teams going in opposite directions. The Bears are surging and have a rushing advantage in this game at 11 versus the Chargers rush index of -5. But the tables are turned with Chicago’s -10 passing index against a fat index of 23 for the Phillip Rivers air raid. The Chargers need a win badly and the Bears are in the thick of the NFC race. Two teams have a lot at stake, but only one has momentum at this point.

PHI @ NYG  8:20 PM  MetLife Stadium

How many teams have the Eagles heard the term Dream Team used to describe them this season? It is the perfect irony and testament to a team concept. The Giants would figure to be the heavy favorite here, but the numbers suggest differently. The Eagles have a slight edge in passing index of 8 to 7 and a huge advantage of 19 to -12 in the rushing game. The Giants are a logical favorite, but this is a statistical upset possibility.

Mon, Nov 21

KC @ NE  8:30 PM  Gillette Stadium

The Chiefs have cooled off with losses to Miami and Denver following a great run to get them in the division race, but they are still only one game behind. The Patriots are fresh off a dismantling of the Jets. The Pats followed up a 45-3 pasting of the Jets last year with Big wins over the Bears and Packers. New England may be starting a play-off run with solid indexes of 7 rushing and 14 passing this week. The Chiefs are fairly neutral this week with indexes of 4 passing and -1 rushing.

Enjoy the games and don’t forget your Byes: Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers